Yes Minister’s Sir Humphrey would have called it a courageous decision. Exclusive new polling for Prospect shows that Rishi Sunak starts his election campaign in a worse position than Jeremy Corbyn last time – and Keir Starmer in a better position  than Boris Johnson. To dig beneath the surface of conventional voting intention polls. Deltapoll … Continue reading Sunak is in a deeper hole than Corbyn was in 2019

An odd thing happened on the way to this blog. We know that Rishi Sunak’s poll ratings are terrible. Voters think he is not up the job. I decided to delve further into his unpopularity, and thought I knew what I would find. Each week, YouGov asks a battery of political questions, separately from its … Continue reading Sunak’s biggest problem: Tory voters think he’s weak

It was big news when Reg Prentice switched from Labour to Conservative in 1977. He has been a cabinet minister under Harold Wilson and James Callaghan. His decision to cross the floor secured one of the accolades of the times—a full interview on Weekend World, then the leading political TV programme. His interviewer, Brian Walden … Continue reading The curious case of Natalie Elphicke

Amid the glorious blizzard of graphics with which Sky News and the BBC explained last week’s elections, one stands out. It undermines Rishi Sunak’s claim that the Conservatives are on course to deprive Labour of a majority at the coming general election. Sunak’s claim is very narrowly based. It’s as if, when Crystal Palace recently … Continue reading Five reasons why Rishi Sunak is wrong about last week’s elections

Be prepared. Next weekend each party will be trying to persuade us that they have done better than expected in Thursday’s elections, and are on their way to victory (Labour), recovery (Conservatives) or breakthrough (Liberal Democrats and Greens). The supporters of each will want to believe the spin. Some may actually do so. This blog … Continue reading How to make sense of this week’s elections

Here are three questions that are blowing in the Westminster wind. Are deportations to Rwanda a good idea? Should we need to show our photo ID in next week’s elections? Will our hospitals and care homes have enough staff in the years ahead? These are tricky matters, and they are connected by a paradox. It … Continue reading The Brexit effect: immigration up, hostility down

Neither Labour nor the Tories want to talk about it, but that doesn’t stop the rest of us. The Conservatives dread the prospect of a wipe out, while Labour fears that talk of a clean sweep will make falling just a little short look like failure. The issue in question is the election of ten … Continue reading The mayoral battles that could seal Sunak’s fate

Take your pick. A Labour majority of 286, or merely 156? Either would deliver Keir Starmer a landslide. However, the 130-seat difference matters. Suppose Labour’s lead shrinks, and with a week to go, one poll shows it heading for a 120-seat majority, while another indicates a hung parliament. The political dovecotes would flutter furiously. Now, … Continue reading Sorry, Survation, you have the wrong numbers

Desperate politicians and optimistic economists often think it, but the wise ones usually keep it to themselves: “This time it will be different”. In the real world, failed Prime Ministers pass a point of no return; and modern economies never quite shake off the ups and downs of the trade cycle. Even so, I shall … Continue reading The Tory crisis conceals Labour’s weakness

What on earth is Sadiq Khan worried about? On May 2 he hopes to be elected as London’s Mayor for the third time. Polls give him a two-to-one lead over his main rival. The whole city has been moving steadily Left for decades. In the general election four years ago, even as Labour was being … Continue reading Could Sadiq Khan really lose in London?

Whatever the truth about the stories of plots to oust Rishi Sunak, his party is plainly in trouble. The polls disagree about the depth of the hole the Tories are in, but they agree that it has been getting deeper. They also agree why. Since last autumn many Tory voters have decided that Sunak’s government … Continue reading Ukip never really threatened the Tories. Reform does

If Jeremy Hunt’s plan is to annoy his party’s most faithful supporters, last week’s Budget succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. A year ago, with the economy still weak, tax allowances frozen and the Tories struggling to escape from the shadow of Liz Truss’s disastrous premiership, voters over 65 still backed the Tories over Labour by … Continue reading How pensioners are turning against the Tories