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Time to separate the noise from the signal. Polling headlines often pick out the noise—dramatic changes that might be short-term, or reflect sampling fluctuations, or both—rather than the signal: the underlying state of public opinion, which conveys more significant messages. Two polls in recent days point in different directions. YouGov’s poll in Saturday’s Times reported a “collapse”… Read more

For a while this spring, British ministers seemed to be edging towards a deal with the European Union on the Brexit issues that still divided them. Public grandstanding died down as confidential talks were held with little leaking. They didn’t last. The fundamental gaps between the two sides could not be bridged. Megaphone diplomacy has… Read more