How grumblers and defectors have laid a trap for our pollsters

This is one of my very occasional very long blogs, so I‘ll start with a summary of my argument. In recent years a new polling technique, MRP, has attracted much attention. It uses detailed data from large national surveys to predict the results of individual constituencies. Despite some well-publicised successes for MRP, I believe there … Continue reading How grumblers and defectors have laid a trap for our pollsters

Local elections: terrible for the Tories; just OK for Labour

Welcome to the cherry orchard. In the past 24 hours the different parties have been picking their fruit from different trees. Rishi Sunak points to Tory gains in Sandwell, Bassetlaw and Stockton. Labour proclaims its triumphs in Swindon, Medway and Stoke. Ed Davey has discovered the national significance of Windsor & Maidenhead. It was ever … Continue reading Local elections: terrible for the Tories; just OK for Labour

The polls dispute the size of Labour’s lead; the local elections may tell us which are right

How times change. In bygone days, polls were rare treats. Mid-term figures for voting intention would appear two or three times a month. Pundits and strategists would savour each one, as if sipping a rare malt whisky. Today they flow like running water. At least one hundred have been published since that start of this … Continue reading The polls dispute the size of Labour’s lead; the local elections may tell us which are right

Should the Tories be worried by Reform – and Labour by the Greens?

Last time it didn’t matter; next time it might matter a lot. The best analysis of the 2019 election result found that the Brexit Party cost the Conservatives 25 seats. However, as Boris Johnson’s majority was 80 without those seats, the Brexit Party, which won no seats of its own, failed to achieve Nigel Farage’s … Continue reading Should the Tories be worried by Reform – and Labour by the Greens?