CONSERVATIVES  Good news: For a government fighting elections in mid term, their 33% share of the vote was reasonable. (I am using the figures produced by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Nuffield College, Oxford. They draw on a much larger sample of wards than the BBC, which gave the Tories 30%.). Overall, the Tories … Continue reading This is how the parties really did in the local elections

This weekend, will Boris Johnson claim to be a latter-day Lazarus? Will Labour predict that Keir Starmer is on his way to Downing Street? Will the Greens and Lib Dems boast that they have broken through? The answer to all these questions may well be “yes”. Local elections week has its own special rhythm. Ahead … Continue reading Who’s really up and who down? A survival guide to the local elections

Here we go again. Fresh suggestions come daily that Boris Johnson’s departure is imminent. The latest theory is that the Conservatives will do so badly in next week’s elections that their MPs will submit enough letters to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, to trigger the process for booting Johnson out of … Continue reading Why Johnson is down but not yet out

The first poll conducted after the start of the war reported a sharp rise in the Prime Minister’s rating, from plus 17 to plus 36 (from 55% satisfied, 38% dissatisfied, to 65-29%.) No, not Boris Johnson’s rating since Russia invade Ukraine, but those of Neville Chamberlain in 1939.  Much good did it do him. By … Continue reading Ukraine, voters and lessons from history

If we look past the wild oscillations of daily news stories about Boris Johnson, in turns amusing and shocking, two basic truths stand out. The first is that in his campaign to become Britain’s Prime Minister, he pushed his country to the edge of relevance in world affairs. The second is that, as Prime Minister, … Continue reading Boris Johnson risks the same fate as Al Capone

We are frequently told that Boris Johnson is a Heineken Tory: he can appeal to voters that other Conservatives cannot reach. This is one reason—for some the only reason—that many of the party’s MPs are reluctant to depose him, even as the scandal of Partygate becomes farcical. They fear that they are more likely to … Continue reading The myth that keeps Boris Johnson in Downing Street

Here is a conundrum for the year ahead. What can be done to fight the anti-progressive bias that distorts British politics? At the last general election, just under 15m people voted for parties on the right that wanted to “get Brexit done,” while almost 17m people voted for parties on the left and centre that … Continue reading A Labour-Lib Dem-Green alliance to fight the Tories? Why it should happen – and why it won’t

Conservative MPs in marginal seats will enter 2022 with an agonising dilemma. Do they stay loyal to Boris Johnson, who help them win two years ago – or depose him in order to keep their seats next time? New research by the polling company Opinium shows that Johnson has lost his personal appeal, at least … Continue reading The proof that Boris Johnson is now hurting the Tories’ election prospects

Dramatic by-election results – and Helen Morgan’s victory in North Shropshire’s is certainly one of the most dramatic – tend to give rise to two competing narratives: that a revolution has taken place and British politics will never be the same again; or alternatively: calm down: the result will soon be relegated to the footnotes … Continue reading North Shropshire: Heineken Boris has lost his fizz

The general election two years ago was a clash between two agendas. The first was whether Brexit should go ahead; the second was whether Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn should be Prime Minister. On Brexit, 52% of us voted for a party that backed a People’s Vote – a second referendum. Against this 47% voted … Continue reading How Labour messed up in 2019 – and why the Tories are now vulnerable