Neither Labour nor the Conservatives will admit it, but both have lost their favourite line of attack against the other. Following the pandemic, and the announcement of a new tax to pay for extra spending on health and social care, the Tories can no longer be plausibly attacked as a right-wing, laissez-faire, small-government party. Equally, … Continue reading Why the Tories are still ahead – and where they are vulnerable

Labour and the Conservatives head for their annual conferences with Britain’s voters in much the same mood as Romeo’s wounded friend, Mercutio: “a plague on both your houses”. The voting intention figures tell only a fraction of the story; we shall come to these later. The larger truth is that, unusually, the leaders of the … Continue reading Johnson and Starmer trapped by the Plague Index

It’s my fault. Well, mine and 12 million others. We are living too long. Were it not for us, there would be no social care crisis, the NHS would have plenty of money, and taxes would not need to rise.  My intention here is not to induce guilt in my fellow post-war baby boomers, but … Continue reading Higher taxes? We ain’t seen nothing yet

Nobody with the slightest humanity could equate the horrific events in Kabul with McDonalds running out of milk shakes. Yet in recent UK news broadcasts, stories of mildly inconvenient food shortages at home have vied for viewers’ attention with the desperate plight of families 4,000 miles away. In their very different ways, both stories give … Continue reading Afghanistan, Brexit and the illusion of “Global Britain”

Perhaps opinion polls should come with the same warnings as financial advertisements: past performance does not guarantee results. Even so, as Boris Johnson faces criticism for Britain's role in the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, a trip down memory lane suggests that foreign policy disasters do not necessarily destroy the reputations of governments. Let’s start with … Continue reading War and politics: lessons from Eden, Blair and Churchill

Time to separate the noise from the signal. Polling headlines often pick out the noise—dramatic changes that might be short-term, or reflect sampling fluctuations, or both—rather than the signal: the underlying state of public opinion, which conveys more significant messages. Two polls in recent days point in different directions. YouGov’s poll in Saturday’s Times reported a “collapse” … Continue reading British voters now dislike both main parties

For a while this spring, British ministers seemed to be edging towards a deal with the European Union on the Brexit issues that still divided them. Public grandstanding died down as confidential talks were held with little leaking. They didn’t last. The fundamental gaps between the two sides could not be bridged. Megaphone diplomacy has … Continue reading The perils of megaphone diplomacy

Election manifestos are like the small print on the guarantees that come with television sets, toasters and other such purchases. Much time and effort is spent getting right the words that hardly any of us ever read. Still, most of us know that the small print in a purchase matters. It establishes the contractual relationship … Continue reading Post-Covid, the Tories’ 2019 manifesto still matters. Will their broken promises come back to haunt them?

Roll up, roll up. Welcome to By-Election World, the home of false dawns. Thrill to the excitement of the midnight count! Gasp at the winner’s claim to history! Mock the loser’s lame excuses! Shrug when life returns to normal and nothing has really changed! Free entry to politics’ weirdest theme park; disappointment guaranteed. Well, that’s … Continue reading The Red Wall matters more than the Blue Wall

The case is made easily – and frequently: if we had a different method for electing our MPs, Britain would still be in the European Union. The argument goes like this. The 2019 general election produced a big parliamentary majority for Brexit because First Past The Post (FPTP) distorted our votes. Almost 17 million people … Continue reading Why pro-Europeans should beware of voting reform