I have bad news for those who complain, as I’m told Aneurin Bevan once did, that statistics take the poetry out of politics. The analysis that follows is mainly about numbers. There is a reason for this. The outcome of the next election—who will win, and how well—will depend on the way thirty-plus million votes … Continue reading Figuring out the next election

When Keir Starmer stood for Labour’s leadership three years ago, he made ten campaign pledges. This was pledge number five: Common Ownership; Public services should be in public hands, not making profits for shareholders. Support common ownership of rail, mail, energy and water; end outsourcing in our NHS, local government and justice system. This is … Continue reading Labour voters want pragmatism, not ideology

Let us start with some good news about climate change. No, I cannot unveil some secret analysis showing that global warming is slowing down, or that targets for the future are well within reach. The COP meetings in Glasgow and Sharm-el-Sheikh made less progress than the planet requires. The good news, however, is that the … Continue reading A new year fantasy of a better politics

Here is a question to ponder during the winter break in politics. Should the lull be as long as it is? Parliament has a recess of almost three weeks and, by tacit agreement, no elections take place in January. So not only do we enjoy a festive silence from the politicians; for a few precious … Continue reading And did those feet in ancient time suffer from frostbite?

If the swing in the Chester by-election were repeated throughout Britain, Labour would have a majority of around 50. In that sense, the party can claim to be on course for a comfortable victory at the next election. “Repeated throughout Britain….” Those words, or something similar, are uttered by every opposition party after every mid-term … Continue reading Chester by-election: not as good as it looks for Labour

Let us start with a curious thing about the week Queen Elizabeth died, for it has lessons for the current state of British politics, and not just our constitutional arrangements. Like the dog in the night, the curious thing is what didn’t happen. For years, polls had found that only one person in three wanted … Continue reading The curious case of Brexit, the King and the tipping point

Here is a thought experiment. Suppose Keir Starmer and his closest shadow cabinet allies were to meet for an awayday, at the highest levels and in the utmost privacy, to discuss the party’s policy as we approach the next election, and set itself the following exam question: leaving side the words to be written in … Continue reading Cautious words now, bold action later: a Labour plan for Brexit

If Cambridge had had a politics department in the 1960s, I might never have become a pollster. In those days, it did not really regard politics as a proper subject at all, merely a minor component of a degree in economics, the subject I was studying. And because it lacked its own experts in British … Continue reading The man who transformed the study of elections

Something old, something new. Over the decades, pollsters have tracked the fortunes of parties and their leaders. They tend to rise and fall broadly together—but not precisely. In the late 1990s, Labour was popular, but Tony Blair more so; in recent times, when Labour’s ratings were bad, Jeremy Corbyn’s were worse. What’s new is the … Continue reading 1945, 2022: respected PM, shame about his party

Will history repeat itself? In 1995, Labour enjoyed leads of more than 30 points over the Conservatives, just as it does today. Two years later Tony Blair led his party to a landslide victory. Are we heading for a repeat? Here are three reasons for Labour caution. Some of the current dislike of the Tories … Continue reading The Tories can now win – the election after next

Something has changed, and it’s not just the way the Conservatives have collapsed. The other half of the story could matter even more. It is the recovery of the Labour Party. Until this autumn, the likeliest result of the next election was a hung parliament and a minority Labour government. To win outright, Labour needs … Continue reading This time Labour really has turned the tide

Almost 14 million people voted Conservative at the last election. How many of them would vote Conservative today? Just five million, says YouGov; up to eight million say its rivals.  Both are dreadful figures for the Tories, but the gulf between them is extraordinary. It’s this gulf that lies behind the huge differences in the … Continue reading 33%? 17%? What is Labour’s real lead?