After three months in which the poll ratings of Donald Trump and Joe Biden have flatlined, two events in three days have – perhaps – shaken up the US election campaign. If last night’s extraordinary TV debate doesn’t do so, surely nothing will. Elections are not just, and sometimes not much, about policy and ideology. … Continue reading Biden is on his way to passing the Rocky test as Trump blows up

I joined the Sunday Times in 1969 and stayed until 1980. I worked for Harry Evans for 11 of his 14 years as the paper’s editor. Last week’s obituaries rightly described him as one of the great editors, arguably the greatest, of the 20th century. Here are some of my memories of those times. Let’s … Continue reading Memories of Harry Evans

This blog is my attempt to dissect the current dramas in British politics for a pan-European audience. It updates a commentary I wrote last week for Carnegie Europe. Insults, however unfair, are apt to stick. In the early 1790s, as the French Revolution descended into terror, the sympathy it had enjoyed in Britain drained away. … Continue reading Dear Europe: This is what you need to know about Boris Johnson

Here is a sentence I never thought I would write. Britain’s global reputation, its hopes of economic recovery and a vital constitutional principle could depend on the actions of the House of Lords. That any, let alone all, of these three things are in jeopardy is bad enough. For their defence to be in the … Continue reading If Tory MPs don’t stop Johnson from defying international law, will Labour and the Lords?

Werner Heisenberg would have understood the merits of opinion polls — and their limitations. He was the physicist who proposed the Uncertainty Principle, the idea that the observation of tiny, sub-atomic particles can provide powerful insights but never guarantee precision. Much the same can be said of opinion polls. Applying Heisenberg’s principle to the current American … Continue reading Biden v Trump: the stability of Biden’s lead is certain, but the final outcome is not

Jonathan Jones’s decision to resign as the Government’s top lawyer will surprise anyone who believes the Government’s account of what is going on this week. A new bill is planned, which will give Britain the right to decide how to apply the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement in relation to Northern Ireland. Ministers have ben saying, and … Continue reading Brexit: why the British government’s top lawyer had to resign

Joe Biden’s task seems obvious enough. He must win back a decent number of the long-term Democrats who backed Donald Trump four years ago. If he does that, he will become President. If he doesn’t he will lose. In fact, that’s not quite right. It is perfectly possible for Trump to retain all the support … Continue reading Joe Biden is ahead because he isn’t Hillary Clinton

Rishi Sunak deserves full marks for consistency – and for setting Labour a tricky problem. In March, when he unveiled his first multi-billion-pound response to the pandemic, he said: “this is not a time for ideology”. In July, when he announced more support for workers and businesses, he underlined the point: “We entered this crisis … Continue reading Why Attlee offers a role model for Keir Starmer

Think spots and leopards. Boris Johnson became Prime Minister having been sacked twice from other jobs for telling lies – in 1988 from The Times for fabricating a quote from his godfather; and in 2004 from the Conservative front bench for lying to his party leader about an affair. His supporters must have hoped that … Continue reading Boris Johnson’s top ten lies from his first year as Prime Minister

On Wednesday (August 12), we shall be told how much Britain’s economy contracted in the second quarter of this year. Here are three predictions. First, the figures will show that Britain’s economy has contracted by more than at any time since the Black Death (or some other ancient horror). Second, they will dominate the day’s … Continue reading Ignore this week’s GDP figures. They will be nonsense