Last week’s polls got the US elections wrong – but not THAT wrong

How bad were the American polls last week? Until the final figures come in, any verdict must be provisional. However, at the time of writing, this seems to be the picture. The polls systematically understated Donald Trump’s support. This meant that the predicted landslide (in electoral college terms) for Biden didn’t happen – and nor … Continue reading Last week’s polls got the US elections wrong – but not THAT wrong

America’s liberals are gaining ground – but tribal divisions are widening

The bitter polarisation of the American election is only too obvious. For many of us, the contours of the battle are clear: in one corner, Joe Biden: a decent, moderate candidate with liberal values and respect for what science tells us about issues ranging from climate change to Covic-19. In the other corner, Donald Trump, … Continue reading America’s liberals are gaining ground – but tribal divisions are widening

Biden is on his way to passing the Rocky test as Trump blows up

After three months in which the poll ratings of Donald Trump and Joe Biden have flatlined, two events in three days have – perhaps – shaken up the US election campaign. If last night’s extraordinary TV debate doesn’t do so, surely nothing will. Elections are not just, and sometimes not much, about policy and ideology. … Continue reading Biden is on his way to passing the Rocky test as Trump blows up

Dear Europe: This is what you need to know about Boris Johnson

This blog is my attempt to dissect the current dramas in British politics for a pan-European audience. It updates a commentary I wrote last week for Carnegie Europe. Insults, however unfair, are apt to stick. In the early 1790s, as the French Revolution descended into terror, the sympathy it had enjoyed in Britain drained away. … Continue reading Dear Europe: This is what you need to know about Boris Johnson