In the short term, the result of Donald Trump’s impeachment is not in doubt. The Senate will fail to amass the 67 votes needed to convict him. The longer term is another matter, for leading Republicans will still face an essential dilemma: should they keep the former president as their de facto leader, or dump … Continue reading Ten million reasons for the Republicans to dump Trump

For America’s Democrats, Joe Biden’s inauguration is not quite the celebration they were expecting; and it’s not just because Washington’s National Mall is closed. On election day eleven weeks ago, they hoped not just to win the presidency but to tighten their grip on Congress. The 538 website’s central prediction was that they would win … Continue reading The great myth of the 2020 US elections: split voting

If Boris Johnson thinks his life will get easier in the spring, he should think again. Even if the current lockdown and vaccine programme both succeed, a fresh crisis is almost certain to erupt in its wake, to last longer than coronavirus, and be harder to tackle. This year Scottish voters will elect a new … Continue reading How Brexit helps the cause of Scottish independence

When Dorothy saw that the Wizard of Oz was a fraud, she was furious: “You are a very bad man.” “No, my dear,” he replied. “I’m a very good man. I’m just a very bad wizard.” Boris Johnson’s best hope of flourishing in Brexit Britain, following the victory for his deal this week in parliament, … Continue reading The Brexit challenges to come for Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer

Cheer up. I bring good news. The Second World War will soon be over. To be precise, it will be over for Britain. It ended long ago for the rest of Europe–not just the fighting but dealing with its aftermath. For most of western Europe, the biggest step towards shaping the future was signing the … Continue reading Britain and Europe: 70 years of fudge will soon be over

With almost all of the votes counted in America’s Presidential election, a mystery remains – and its solution has important lessons for British politics generally and the Labour Party in particular. The mystery is this. While polls systematically overstated Joe Biden’s support in almost all the battleground states – predicting comfortable victories in states that … Continue reading Biden’s victory shows that Labour’s road back to government goes through Atlanta

Almost half a century ago I had my fifteen minutes of – well, not quite fame; but time in the witness box at the Old Bailey. The trial still lives in the memory, and not just mine. Last night BBC1 broadcast Mangrove, a dramatic reconstruction of the events that led to one of the great … Continue reading The day I gave evidence against the police

The good news for Labour is that it now leads the Conservatives for the first time since the general election; and it is doing especially well in the seats it has lost in the past decade. The bad news is that it still has a massive mountain to climb if it is to win the … Continue reading Labour is ahead in the polls, especially its “red wall” target seats, but….

How bad were the American polls last week? Until the final figures come in, any verdict must be provisional. However, at the time of writing, this seems to be the picture. The polls systematically understated Donald Trump’s support. This meant that the predicted landslide (in electoral college terms) for Biden didn’t happen – and nor … Continue reading Last week’s polls got the US elections wrong – but not THAT wrong

Here is some good news for those who fear a messy, long-drawn out battle after next Tuesday to determine who will be America’s president for the next four years. Unless the contest proves a great deal closer than the polls now indicate, we shall know by the end of election night who has won. That … Continue reading Ignore the scares. If Joe Biden wins, we’ll know on the night