Not surprisingly, the second big YouGov MRP survey is attracting as much attention as the first, two weeks ago. It has reduced its headline projection of the Conservative majority from a comfortable 68 to a nervy 28. Why? In some ways the answer is less dramatic than it would seem at first sight – but … Continue reading How to decode YouGov’s latest MRP data showing Tory majority down from 68 to 28

As we enter election week, let us start with what we do know, before discussing what we don’t yet know. We know that voters have been far less volatile during this campaign than it was in 2017. As I wrote last week, there were huge movements in September and October; but since early November most … Continue reading The Tories will have a majority of 40 on Thursday – unless they don’t

It was a time of turbulence, it was a time of stability. When the definitive account of the current election comes to be written, my candidate for its title is: A Tale of Two Islands. To explain: In the past three months, support for each of the Britain-wide parties has fluctuated as never before. Individual … Continue reading Are Britain’s voters fickle or stable? It depends on the way you look at them

Dominic Raab’s fierce enthusiasm for Brexit could cost him dear in a constituency that voted Remain in the 2016 referendum. His 23,298 majority in Esher and Walton at the last general election was one of the largest in Britain. In normal times, defeat would be unthinkable. Yet he now faces a pincer movement, with Labour supporters switching … Continue reading How Dominic Raab could provide this year’s Portillo moment

This is not a sentence I ever expected to write; but I have some sympathy for Dominic Cummings. Boris Johnson’s notorious adviser is worried that too many people will take a Conservative victory for granted, stop worrying about Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister, and hence fail to vote Conservative on 12th December. Might complacency and the … Continue reading YouGov’s model projects a Conservative majority of 68. Is it right? Yes, but…

The Conservatives remain on course for a clear but not massive majority. Last week I discussed the ways in which their lead might slip to the point where we end up with a hung parliament. The opposite possibility also exists: a Tory landslide. If that is where we end up, it will, more than anything, … Continue reading A Conservative landslide is possible. Here are startling poll numbers that explain why

Beware projections of parliamentary seats from national poll figures. This week’s surveys of three possible marginals suggests that voting movements are likely to vary wildly – even in neighbouring seats which look similar. In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former … Continue reading Tactical voting could help the Liberal Democrats – sometimes