Something old, something new. Over the decades, pollsters have tracked the fortunes of parties and their leaders. They tend to rise and fall broadly together—but not precisely. In the late 1990s, Labour was popular, but Tony Blair more so; in recent times, when Labour’s ratings were bad, Jeremy Corbyn’s were worse. What’s new is the … Continue reading 1945, 2022: respected PM, shame about his party

Will history repeat itself? In 1995, Labour enjoyed leads of more than 30 points over the Conservatives, just as it does today. Two years later Tony Blair led his party to a landslide victory. Are we heading for a repeat? Here are three reasons for Labour caution. Some of the current dislike of the Tories … Continue reading The Tories can now win – the election after next

Something has changed, and it’s not just the way the Conservatives have collapsed. The other half of the story could matter even more. It is the recovery of the Labour Party. Until this autumn, the likeliest result of the next election was a hung parliament and a minority Labour government. To win outright, Labour needs … Continue reading This time Labour really has turned the tide

Almost 14 million people voted Conservative at the last election. How many of them would vote Conservative today? Just five million, says YouGov; up to eight million say its rivals.  Both are dreadful figures for the Tories, but the gulf between them is extraordinary. It’s this gulf that lies behind the huge differences in the … Continue reading 33%? 17%? What is Labour’s real lead?

I have changed my mind. For more than forty years I have argued against Britain using proportional voting to elect its MPs. I saw benefits in a system in which MPs answered to local constituents, and governments were chosen by voters on election day, not by politicians cobbling together coalitions in the weeks afterwards. Those … Continue reading Fair votes: good for Britain, bad for Labour

In our democratic age, no monarch could survive a determined push by voters to dispense with the royal family. Bearing that in mind, what is the state of public opinion – and should it worry the new King? At first sight, the figures suggest he has nothing to fear. For three decades, Ipsos (formerly Mori) … Continue reading King Charles, the monarchy and public opinion

That Liz Truss takes the helm during a cost-of-living crisis is well known. That she will throw money at it is obvious, even if we must wait a day or two to find out how much money, in what way, and to whom. But there is a bigger crisis she faces—one she shows no signs … Continue reading Liz Truss and the crisis of Conservatism

Boris Johnson  is clear what he wants his legacy to be. In his resignation speech on July 7, his most prominent boast was his success in “getting Brexit done, settling our relations with the continent after half a century and reclaiming the power for this country to make its own laws in parliament”. The trouble … Continue reading Most voters say Boris Johnson failed to “get Brexit done”

If Liz Truss pays any attention to history, she should be worried. When she becomes Prime Minister next week (now a racing certainty) she will be the fourth party leader to be elected against the wishes of the party’s MPs. Here is what happened to the other three. 2001: Grassroots Conservatives elected Iain Duncan Smith; … Continue reading Liz Truss’s honeymoon may already be over

We shall come to the future of British politics in a moment; but first a story. It comes from John Barry, a colleague of mine on the Sunday Times when I started out in journalism. John was one of the paper’s most effective investigative journalists. In the early Seventies he uncovered the way the Greek … Continue reading Memo to Truss: remain the queen of U-turns

If the Conservative leadership contest were a football match, last night’s TV debate was the first skirmish of the second half. With her 24 per cent lead in the latest YouGov poll of party members, Liz Truss arrived at the debate with the equivalent of w two goal lead. Not surprisingly, she played defence, doing … Continue reading Last night’s TV debate: Truss got the draw she needed

Liz Truss is campaigning as a committed Brexiter to become Conservative leader. Six years ago, her view was different. She was then Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. On May 16, 2016, five weeks before the Brexit referendum, she delivered a speech, which can be viewed on YouTube, to the Food and … Continue reading The day Liz Truss told the truth about Brexit