First a word of warning. This is not a normal blog. What follows is a lengthy look at how Labour could win the next election (or at least become the largest party) but why it has not yet found an effective strategy for appealing to two very different kinds of target voter. My analysis derives … Continue reading Why Labour must win over Jenny and Joe – and how it can

We all know the mantra. Britain has its problems but, for all its faults, our nation is a mature, stable democracy. We don’t do civil wars or revolutions. We haven’t been occupied since 1066 or lost a major war since America gained its independence. Fascists, Nazis and Communists have never broken through. A British version … Continue reading The fragile roots of Britain’s democracy

We shall come to Partygate, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party in a moment; but first, a question. Do we have a soul and, if so, where is it?  In 1869, Friedrich Goltz, a German physiologist, wanted to find out. He conducted an experiment with two frogs. One had its brain removed, while … Continue reading Why today’s Conservative Party resembles a frog with no brain

These should be happy days for Boris Johnson. The Prime Minister has a comfortable majority in Parliament. His Labour opponent, Keir Starmer, is struggling to enthuse Britain’s voters. He is emulating his hero, Winston Churchill, in his rhetorical defiance of Vladimir Putin and his military support for Ukraine. Indeed, Johnson enjoys great popularity in parts … Continue reading Boris Johnson is not running Britain. He’s running scared

CONSERVATIVES  Good news: For a government fighting elections in mid term, their 33% share of the vote was reasonable. (I am using the figures produced by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Nuffield College, Oxford. They draw on a much larger sample of wards than the BBC, which gave the Tories 30%.). Overall, the Tories … Continue reading This is how the parties really did in the local elections

This weekend, will Boris Johnson claim to be a latter-day Lazarus? Will Labour predict that Keir Starmer is on his way to Downing Street? Will the Greens and Lib Dems boast that they have broken through? The answer to all these questions may well be “yes”. Local elections week has its own special rhythm. Ahead … Continue reading Who’s really up and who down? A survival guide to the local elections

Here we go again. Fresh suggestions come daily that Boris Johnson’s departure is imminent. The latest theory is that the Conservatives will do so badly in next week’s elections that their MPs will submit enough letters to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, to trigger the process for booting Johnson out of … Continue reading Why Johnson is down but not yet out

The first poll conducted after the start of the war reported a sharp rise in the Prime Minister’s rating, from plus 17 to plus 36 (from 55% satisfied, 38% dissatisfied, to 65-29%.) No, not Boris Johnson’s rating since Russia invade Ukraine, but those of Neville Chamberlain in 1939.  Much good did it do him. By … Continue reading Ukraine, voters and lessons from history

If we look past the wild oscillations of daily news stories about Boris Johnson, in turns amusing and shocking, two basic truths stand out. The first is that in his campaign to become Britain’s Prime Minister, he pushed his country to the edge of relevance in world affairs. The second is that, as Prime Minister, … Continue reading Boris Johnson risks the same fate as Al Capone

We are frequently told that Boris Johnson is a Heineken Tory: he can appeal to voters that other Conservatives cannot reach. This is one reason—for some the only reason—that many of the party’s MPs are reluctant to depose him, even as the scandal of Partygate becomes farcical. They fear that they are more likely to … Continue reading The myth that keeps Boris Johnson in Downing Street

Here is a conundrum for the year ahead. What can be done to fight the anti-progressive bias that distorts British politics? At the last general election, just under 15m people voted for parties on the right that wanted to “get Brexit done,” while almost 17m people voted for parties on the left and centre that … Continue reading A Labour-Lib Dem-Green alliance to fight the Tories? Why it should happen – and why it won’t

Conservative MPs in marginal seats will enter 2022 with an agonising dilemma. Do they stay loyal to Boris Johnson, who help them win two years ago – or depose him in order to keep their seats next time? New research by the polling company Opinium shows that Johnson has lost his personal appeal, at least … Continue reading The proof that Boris Johnson is now hurting the Tories’ election prospects