Figures buried in a recent YouGov survey help to explain last night’s by-election results, and why Labour’s recent victories have been both spectacular and routine. After last week’s Labour Party conference, Voters were asked: “If Keir Starmer and the Labour Party were to form the next Government, how much of a change, if any, do … Continue reading Labour has overcome the fear factor

Time for an update. Regular readers may recall that I have been cautious about Labour’s prospects. Three months ago, I said the party had a 50-50 chance of securing an overall majority at the next election. Since then, the odds have moved in Keir Starmer’s favour. He is now likely to lead a majority government … Continue reading Labour’s mountain is not as high as it was

In the run-up to the Conservative conference, there has been much discussion about Richi Sunak’s core political beliefs. What does he really stand for? What kind of Britain does he wish to build? In short, what is Sunakism? Perhaps we should ask a more basic question first: why should our Prime Minister have an “ism” … Continue reading Why Sunakism isn’t working

I can exclusively reveal the results of a survey I have been conducting about British and American politics. Before readers get too excited, I should admit that this is far from scientific. But the results still tell us something. The next British general election and US presidential election are likely be held close together. The … Continue reading What difference will Britain’s next election make?

Buried in two new official reports is evidence of a defect that is warping British democracy. Fortunately, it would cost little to correct; so the Treasury can relax. As it happens, reform would also remove a clear, if unintended, bias to the Conservatives. It would make British politics fairer. The case for reform flows from … Continue reading Revealed: How millions of missing voters bias the new boundaries to the Tories

Inside Story, an Australian website, commissioned me to review a new book about the history of Britain's Left from Harold Wilson to Tony Blair Thirty years ago, after stepping down as the leader of Britain’s Labour Party, Neil Kinnock was invited to present two documentaries for the BBC entitled Tomorrow’s Socialism. His mission: to update socialist … Continue reading How Labour evolved from ideological to ethical socialism

Last week’s dramatic by-elections provide evidence of a secret weapon that could boost the Conservatives at the next general election. Deployed effectively it could win them the seats they need to deny Labour victory. But if it blows up in their face, they are doomed to lose heavily. The evidence comes not from those who … Continue reading “Lost Tories” could save Sunak 40 seats – if he can woo them back

We have been here before. In April 1977, Labour, then in power, lost one of its safest seats, but on the same night held on to one that was much more marginal. In Ashfield, the Conservatives overturned a Labour majority of almost 23,000, while in Grimsby, a Labour majority of almost 7,000 was reduced to … Continue reading The Tories lost 2-1. not 3-0. The lessons from history

It’s time to revive James Carville’s slogan. In 1992 Bill Clinton’s adviser repeatedly reminded campaign workers: “It’s the economy, stupid”. For a while, other issues here in Britain came to the fore, such as Brexit and immigration. However, following a decade of austerity and stalled living standards, more than a year of high inflation, and … Continue reading Once again, it’s the economy, stupid

To adapt the famous aphorism about Donald Trump, opinion poll stories should be taken seriously but not always literally. Polls are, by a long way, the best way to measure the public mood, but every number they generate is subject to a margin of error. Care should be taken not to dramatise small shifts, cherry-pick … Continue reading Labour has a 50-50 chance of an overall majority

We all know the routine: we see it a lot these days. The leader of the opposition says the economy is in a mess, statistics show that living standards are falling, public sector debt is rising and it’s all the government’s fault. The prime minister responds that global forces are hurting people around the world, … Continue reading How the end of ideology has messed up British politics

Britain is now an anti-Brexit country. The polls confirm this; but it is also true in a politically more telling sense. The change in the national mood has not required anyone to change sides. The power of remorseless demographics has been enough to do the job on its own. In the past seven years, more … Continue reading Brexit: what voters want now