Before we delve into the more complex features of the coming election campaign, let’s start with a simple proposition. The central question on election night will be: have the Conservatives won enough seats to deliver Brexit? “Enough” is around 320. Assuming Sinn Fein a) have seven seats again in the 650-member Parliament, and b) don’t … Continue reading The coming fight between “Get Brexit Done” and “Don’t Trust Boris”

Britain’s future relationship with the European Union lies in the hands of 25 men and women who were elected as Labour MPs two years ago. Nineteen of them recently wrote to Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk saying that the 2016 referendum result should be “honoured without delay”. A further six are no longer Labour MPs, … Continue reading Brexit: the choice facing the Labour MPs who hold the balance of power

As a Queen’s Speech, today’s was a constitutional travesty. Boris Johnson wants an early election; Jeremy Corbyn says he wants one, too. So the new session of parliament may last only a few weeks. In any event, the government is now well short of a majority: even if the new session staggers on for some … Continue reading The battle between Jekyll Johnson and Hyde Johnson

The loudest voices on all sides of the Brexit debate have two things in common: they all seem convinced that they know what the public thinks, and they all believe that their supporters are in the majority. Their arguments are often based on myths. Here are four of them, and the evidence that shows why … Continue reading The evidence that challenges four myths about Brexit

Erwin Schrodinger would have understood the problem. The Austrian physicist, whose imagination gave the world his eponymous cat, discovered how quantum mechanics enabled the same particle to exist in two different states at the same time. As we reach the sharp end of Britain’s Brexit negotiations with the European Union, the central question can be … Continue reading Johnson’s plan for a Schrodinger’s Cat solution to Brexit isn’t working

Sometimes an action’s long term impact is easier to predict than its short term consequences. This week’s ruling of the United Kingdom’s Supreme Court falls squarely into this category. It is truly historic. In centuries to come, 2019 is likely to be remembered as one of those critical dates in the slow evolution of Britain’s … Continue reading What the Supreme Court ruling means for Brexit: a guide for European readers

Boris Johnson may wish to rethink his plan to hold an early general election. The latest YouGov survey suggests that he risks being ejected from Downing Street. True, the Conservatives enjoy a seven per cent lead over Labour. This would normally be enough to secure re-election. However, the “Boris bounce” is fading. Two weeks ago … Continue reading Why an early election carries big risks for both Johnson and Corbyn

This analysis first appeared in The Observer, September 8, 2019 Tony Blair’s victory in the 1997 general election was widely expected. But the size of Labour’s majority was not. Most predictions ranged from 80-130. The final tally was 179. What made the difference? Not the size of Labour’s lead in the popular vote. This was … Continue reading How tactical voting could decide the outcome of the Brexit drama

The rise of populism has variously terrified, delighted and obsessed politicians around the world. As Britain heads for an early general election, in which the choice of populist voters could be decisive, new research finds that there are two distinct populist tribes, not one. This emerges from a forthcoming ten-country study of populism by the … Continue reading Populist voters belong to two separate tribes, not one

As Theresa May learned to her cost two years ago, it’s not just, or even mainly, policies that decide elections, but party leaders and their character. In 2017, May’s ratings crashed during the campaign, while millions of voters discovered that Jeremy Corbyn was not as dreadful as much of the media had painted him. Political … Continue reading Where Johnson is winning the valence war- and why it matters