One of the hazards – or, if you prefer, joys – of democracy is that when politicians ask one question, voters sometimes choose to answer another, Six weeks ago, Rishi Sunak asked us: who do you want to govern Britain? Millions decided that the question they preferred was: why do you want to get rid … Continue reading Starmer unlocks the handcuffs tying voters to the Tories

Of all the records that are likely to tumble this week, one deserves more attention than it has received. By some margin, the combined share of the vote won by Labour and the Conservatives will be the smallest ever for Britain’s two top parties (Conservative and Liberal until 1922, Conservative and Labour since 1923). Before … Continue reading Labour’s mountain has shrunk – for now

Spoiler alert. Labour will win this week’s general election. However, important uncertainties remain. Will Conservatives be able to provide an effective opposition? Will Reform’s appeal surge or fade between now and Thursday? Will low turnout eat into Labour’s majority? Will the SNP still be Scotland’s top party? Here are my predictions – and the assumptions … Continue reading My predictions for Thursday – and why they may be wrong

Labour increased its lead last week. So say BMG, Deltapoll, Focaldata, Lord Ashcroft, Opinium, Savanta and Survation. Alternatively, Labour’s lead shrank. That’s according to More in Common, Redfield & Wilton, Techne, Verian, We Think, Whitestone Insight and YouGov. Two other companies, Norstat and JL Partners, detected no change. There are two ways to respond to … Continue reading Too many polls? Nonsense. Here’s why

“Good morning. Election day has dawned with the outcome of the six-week campaign still in doubt. In the past ten days, the Conservatives have squeezed Reform’s support and narrowed Labour’s lead. The betting markets have shortened the odds of Rishi Sunak pulling off a surprise victory.” No, that is not a prediction of how things … Continue reading Measuring the damage Farage has done to the Tories

Before we wallow in the frantic final fortnight of the election, let us step back and place the drama of the coming Conservative defeat in its wider context. July 4 will be more than a moment when a revived Labour Party seizes its opportunity.  it will be the culmination of a decade when the Tories … Continue reading The Tories have lost their way. Blame Brexit

The Sunday Times asked me to write up the results of Survation’s latest seat-by-seat projection for the general election. It was commissioned by the campaign group Best for Britain and shared with the Sunday Times in advance. I was critical of Survation’s last MRP results in April. In particular, they showed the Liberal Democrats doing … Continue reading The Tories look over the precipice

“Gee, I’m glad I didn’t sell my car.” Kim Campbell was only half joking. Canada’s prime minister had not only been voted out of office; she had lost her own seat. Her party had slumped from an outright majority to just two MPs. Thirty-one years later, could Rishi Sunak suffer the same fate? Probably not: … Continue reading How likely is a Tory wipeout?

Imagine for a moment that you are Penny Mordaunt. You hope to become Conservative leader. First, you must hold your own seat, Portsmouth North. Labour needs a swing of more than 17 per cent to defeat you. When YouGov published its mammoth poll last week, you were relieved that it reported a national swing of … Continue reading Forget 1997. This election is more like 1945

A word of warning to those who think a Labour landslide is now certain. The word, or more accurately number, is “2017”. Never have the wheels flown off a party’s election bus more spectacularly than in the middle of the Theresa May’s election campaign. She was trying to defend her new policy for funding social … Continue reading A Labour landslide is now likely but not yet inevitable

The Queen was not amused. Nor was her guest. He felt as if he had been punched in the solar plexus. Over breakfast at Balmoral, the Sovereign and her prime minister were digesting that morning’s Sunday Times. With eleven days to go to the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, it reported a YouGov poll showing … Continue reading Why the decade of SNP dominance is now over

1. What are the real winning posts? For an outright majority, the winning party needs 326 MPs. But to decide who will be prime minister in six weeks’ time, the answers are different for the two main parties. What matters is whether there is a pro or anti-Conservative majority in the new House of Commons. … Continue reading The key questions for the coming general election