The great myth of the 2020 US elections: split voting

For America’s Democrats, Joe Biden’s inauguration is not quite the celebration they were expecting; and it’s not just because Washington’s National Mall is closed. On election day eleven weeks ago, they hoped not just to win the presidency but to tighten their grip on Congress. The 538 website’s central prediction was that they would win … Continue reading The great myth of the 2020 US elections: split voting

Biden’s victory shows that Labour’s road back to government goes through Atlanta

With almost all of the votes counted in America’s Presidential election, a mystery remains – and its solution has important lessons for British politics generally and the Labour Party in particular. The mystery is this. While polls systematically overstated Joe Biden’s support in almost all the battleground states – predicting comfortable victories in states that … Continue reading Biden’s victory shows that Labour’s road back to government goes through Atlanta

Last week’s polls got the US elections wrong – but not THAT wrong

How bad were the American polls last week? Until the final figures come in, any verdict must be provisional. However, at the time of writing, this seems to be the picture. The polls systematically understated Donald Trump’s support. This meant that the predicted landslide (in electoral college terms) for Biden didn’t happen – and nor … Continue reading Last week’s polls got the US elections wrong – but not THAT wrong